Here we are back in the suspense period, folks. That time between when the business aviation compensation surveys collect their data and analyze it and when they provide it for consumption. I still see pretty constant wage pressure being generated by operators and by the airlines, so I don’t think there’s any doubt that compensation is going to grow. It’s just a question of how much growth we’ll experience.
As I did last year, I’m going to put on my Nostradamus hat and try to predict the growth levels for the positions I track. But before we get to the numbers themselves, let’s discuss the most influential thing that we can’t predict: the composition of the respondent group. To illustrate the effect changes in composition can have on the data, let’s look at the differences in the survey respondent base from 2023, 2024 and 2025.
| Survey | Number of Organizations | Number of Personnel | Average Personnel per Organization |
| NBAA | 455 | 3,442 | 7.6 |
| Gallagher | 131 | 8,572 | 65.4 |
Table 1: 2023 Survey Respondent Demographics
| Survey | Number of Organizations | Number of Personnel | Average Personnel per Organization |
| NBAA | 459 | 4,578 | 9.9 |
| Gallagher | 117 | 8,329 | 71.2 |
Table 2: 2024 Survey Respondent Demographics
| Survey | Number of Organizations | Number of Personnel | Average Personnel per Organization |
| NBAA | 415 | 4,421 | 10.7 |
| Gallagher | 117 | 4,708 | 41.7 |
Table 3: 2025 Survey Respondent Demographics
The NBAA and Gallagher surveys are different samples of the same population, operators within the business-aviation industry. Both surveys typically sample more corporate operators than charter operators, although the Gallagher Survey gets more of the larger/fleet operators, as we can tell by the average personnel per organization. In both 2023 and 2024, one of the Gallagher respondents was NetJets, but in 2025 NetJets didn’t respond, hence the lower personnel numbers and smaller personnel/organization ratio. Since NetJets’ latest and greatest pilot contract was signed in April 2024, after the close of the 2024 survey data collection period, that data would have been included had the operator participated in the 2025 survey. As we look at the differences in survey demographics from 2023 to 2024 and 2024 to 2025, keep in mind that the average growth in compensation was 9.7% from 2023 to 2024 and the average growth was 5.88% from 2024 to 2025. While a natural reduction in compensation levels may be part of the cause for the decrease in growth between the two periods, the change in the respondent base influenced the data. Unfortunately, the significance of that effect is very difficult to ascertain.
So, since we can’t predict what the respondent base will look like in 2026, take these predictions with a grain of salt.
First, here’s what I predict the average growth rates will be for 17 positions in 2026.
| Position | Actual Growth 2024-2025 | Predicted Growth 2025-2026 |
| Avionics Technician | -2.68% | 5.46% |
| Captain | 7.58% | 6.57% |
| Chief Pilot | 5.60% | 6.66% |
| Director of Maintenance | 6.35% | 6.07% |
| Director/Aviation Manager (Flying) | 8.72% | 6.91% |
| Director/Aviation Manager (Non-Flying) | 10.83% | 7.93% |
| First Officer | 6.96% | 8.06% |
| Flight Attendant | 9.40% | 8.50% |
| Flight Coordinator/Office Mgr | 4.03% | 6.59% |
| Flight Technician | 5.72% | 5.44% |
| Line Service Technician | 2.46% | 7.38% |
| Maintenance Assistant | 9.17% | 8.78% |
| Maintenance Supervisor | 1.92% | 5.67% |
| Maintenance Technician | 6.91% | 5.29% |
| Scheduler | 2.39% | 3.78% |
| Senior Captain | 5.22% | 5.78% |
| Senior Flight Attendant | 0.97% | 7.03% |
| Overall Average | 5.88% | 6.67% |
Table 4: Predicted Compensation Growth 2025 – 2026
The projected increase factors are weighted averages derived from the AirComp Calculator’s projected survey aging factors. As you can see, I’m predicting a slight increase in overall total cash compensation growth. Some positions will increase, others will decrease, but overall, there will be an increase of just under one percent. Now, let’s look at the predicted average total cash compensation levels.
| Position | 2025 Actual Average Total Cash Compensation | 2026 Predicted Average Total Cash Compensation |
| Avionics Technician | $98,797 | $104,188 |
| Captain | $219,323 | $233,734 |
| Chief Pilot | $279,142 | $297,723 |
| Director of Maintenance | $260,498 | $276,301 |
| Director/Aviation Manager (Flying) | $338,718 | $362,114 |
| Director/Aviation Manager (Non-Flying) | $315,620 | $340,659 |
| First Officer | $145,521 | $157,252 |
| Flight Attendant | $134,631 | $146,073 |
| Flight Coordinator/Office Mgr. | $129,704 | $138,245 |
| Flight Technician | $138,930 | $146,489 |
| Line Service Technician | $60,816 | $65,307 |
| Maintenance Assistant | $87,528 | $95,217 |
| Maintenance Supervisor | $167,058 | $176,524 |
| Maintenance Technician | $124,731 | $131,331 |
| Scheduler | $90,569 | $93,989 |
| Senior Captain | $262,099 | $277,253 |
| Senior Flight Attendant | $159,562 | $170,778 |
| Average | $180,792 | $192,848 |
Table 5: Predicted Average Compensation Levels for 2026
The calculation here is pretty straightforward. I multiplied the average 2025 compensation level for each position by a factor of one + the predicted increase factor. This calculation illustrates the effect of the predicted growth factor in dollars.
So, these are my predictions for 2026! We’ll do a comparison exercise when the new data comes out and see how well I did. If you have questions, drop me an email at [email protected].
