The first half of 2025 seemed to be consistent with what I discussed at the beginning of 2025. My aimpoint in this article is to illustrate data and share some thoughts as we look ahead into the rest of the year. With interest rates shifting alongside the Treasury market, staying ahead means understanding current conditions and what to expect throughout 2025, especially if you're looking to buy a home.
1. To Now in 2025
- 30-year conventional fixed mortgage rates have eased slightly, sliding from early‑year highs above 7% to about 6.84% as of mid-June, per Freddie Mac—still high compared to pandemic lows, but trending down.
- VA loan rates typically track a bit below the 30‑year fixed average. As of mid‑June, VA loans are floating in the 6.25–7.25% range (national average), although there are lenders that are consistently below that.
- 10‑year Treasury yields, a backbone for mortgage pricing, currently hover around 4.43–4.48% slightly down from April’s 4.5%+ highs, stabilizing in mid‑4% territory.
- Overall, there are very wide ranges, which is consistent with the volatility of the national and political changes in these times.
2. Why the Treasury Yield Connection Matters
Treasury yield ➝ mortgage rate link: mortgage lenders price long‑term loans based on the 10‑year Treasury yield plus a spread. As yields fall, so do mortgage rates—benefiting pilots planning to buy or refinance.
3. Forecast for the Rest of 2025
- 10‑year yields:
A Reuters poll predicts yields will gradually decline from ~4.48% now to about 4.35% in three months and 4.29% in six months. Some forecasts suggest yields could drop further—possibly into the low‑4% or high‑3% range by year’s end. Let’s hope for that! - Mortgage rates:
- Fannie Mae projects 30‑year conventional fixed averages dipping to 6.1% by Q4.
- Forbes Advisor sees a modest slide toward the mid‑6s through Q3‑Q4 2025.
- Experts expect mortgage rates to stay between 6–7% in 2025.
- VA loans should mirror this trend—starting around 6.25–7.25%, likely drifting lower toward the 6% range, if Treasury yields ease as expected. Again, there are lenders who are consistently below this trend for VA rates.
4. What Should Be Done Now
- Timing: If you’re tying the knot with a home purchase or thinking about refinancing, current VA and conventional mortgage rates are near peak 2025 levels. Expect them to drift lower; if you have the flexibility for it, waiting could save thousands.
- Monitor Fed signals: Markets expect 1–2 Fed rate cuts later in 2025. Normally, more cuts equal lower Treasury yields → lower mortgage rates.
5. The Breakdown and (hopeful) Prediction
| Item | Now | End of 2025 (Forecast) |
| 10‑yr Treasury | ~4.45% | ~4.3–4.0% (possibly mid‑3s) |
| 30‑yr mortgage | ~6.84% | ~6.1–6.4% |
| VA loan | ~6.25–7.25% | Likely mid‑6s |
This is always welcome news for homebuyers, so hopefully it will happen! While a few tenths might seem small, on a $400K loan, even a 0.25% rate drop can shave off $100+/month.
Mortgage rates and 10‑year Treasuries have shown volatility in mid‑2025. Hopefully, with Fed cuts likely ahead, mortgage rates could ease into the mid/low‑6s by year-end. Timing your financing for later this fall could mean major savings over financing now. Stay informed about economic indicators and Fed announcements if you are planning your relocation. Working with a lender who specializes in airline pilot pay, conventional, investment, and VA loans is crucial to ensuring you get the best deal for you and your family. We are here for you!
Trident Home Loans (Equal Housing Lender, NMLS 65716) is an airline industry leader for securing the right mortgage for you. Contact Spencer Wartman (NMLS 2109932) at [email protected] or spencerattrident.com and let him help you secure your future home! You are invited to reach out to Spencer directly if there’s a topic you’d like for him to touch on.
Trident Home Loans, NMLS ID 65716, Corporate Office located at 6723 Plantation Rd, Pensacola, FL 32504.Any offers or advertisements for mortgage products on our website or other platforms are subject to conditional approval. The actual terms and conditions of a mortgage loan, including interest rates, loan amounts, and eligibility, are dependent upon several factors, including the borrower's creditworthiness. Trident Home Loans reserves the right to modify or revoke any offer, and final approval is contingent upon the completion of a full application, verification of information provided, and meeting all underwriting requirements. For information regarding our licensing, you can visit our website at www.Tridenthomeloans.com.Trident Home Loans is an Equal Housing Lender. Please note that this disclaimer is provided for informational purposes and may be subject to updates or changes in accordance with regulatory requirements. Borrowers are encouraged to contact Trident Home Loans directly for the most up-to-date and accurate information regarding mortgage products and offerings. This advertisement is not an offer to lend, and all applications are subject to credit approval. Terms and conditions may apply.
