In an Aero Crew News column I authored a few months ago, I made some predictions about the 2025 data. Now that the data has dropped, it’s time to review the results, make some comparisons, and evaluate those predictions. For scoring, I’m reverting to my days in the Air Force dropping manual bombs from the A-10 before the days of the computing bombsight. You’d roll in on your pass, line the pipper up, fly down the chute, and hit the pickle button on the stick when the pipper touched the target, hopefully hitting the parameters of dive angle, altitude, and airspeed simultaneously. Then you’d initiate your recovery (four Gs in two seconds for the A-10) and wait for the ranger to pass your score on the radio. That score came in the form of meters from the target and clock position. So, a bomb that was 15 meters left of the target was scored as “15 at 9.” If your bomb was within five meters, that was considered a bullseye. If your bomb actually hit the target and you were the flight lead, you heard the words all ground-attack pilots longed for, “Shack, One.”
Enough of the history lesson (or my reminiscences), let’s get back to the data. The first table below is a comparison of the predicted and actual growth rates across the 14 positions I tracked from 2024 into 2025. All of the values are weighted averages. For the purposes of scoring the growth predictions, we’ll use:
- Over 3% below the predicted growth/outside qual criteria = Out
- Up to 3% below the predicted growth/inside qual criteria = In
- At or above the predicted growth = Bull
| Position | Min Predicted Growth 24 – 25 | Actual Growth 24 – 25 | Error | Score |
| Captain | 6.06% | 7.13% | 1.07% | Bull |
| Chief Pilot | 7.77% | 6.62% | -1.15% | In |
| Director of Maintenance | 5.51% | 27.93% | 22.42% | Bull |
| Director/Aviation Manager (Flying) | 7.07% | 5.57% | -1.50% | In |
| Director/Aviation Manager (Non-Flying) | 6.62% | 13.60% | 6.98% | Bull |
| First Officer | 7.55% | -3.09% | -10.65% | Out |
| Flight Attendant | 6.08% | 9.28% | 3.19% | Bull |
| Flight Coordinator/Office Manager | 5.75% | 3.03% | -2.71% | In |
| Line Service Tech | 6.09% | 6.78% | 0.70% | Bull |
| Maintenance Supervisor | 5.18% | 2.83% | -2.34% | In |
| Maintenance Technician | 3.09% | 6.44% | 3.34% | Bull |
| Scheduler | 3.51% | 1.68% | -1.83% | In |
| Senior Captain | 6.46% | 5.47% | -0.99% | In |
| Senior Flight Attendant | 6.28% | 1.06% | -5.23% | Out |
Now, let’s evaluate the total cash compensation predictions. Here’s the scoring system we’ll use for that:
- Over $5000 below the predicted level/outside qual criteria = Out
- Up to $5,000 below the predicted level/inside qual criteria = In
- At or above the predicted level = Bull
| Position | Min Predicted Level for 2025 | Actual Level for 2025 | Error | Score |
| Captain | $217,131 | $219,323 | $2,192 | Bull |
| Chief Pilot | $282,145 | $279,142 | -$3,003 | In |
| Director of Maintenance | $214,844 | $260,498 | $45,654 | Bull |
| Director/Aviation Manager (Flying) | $343,515 | $338,718 | -$4,797 | In |
| Director/Aviation Manager (Non-Flying) | $296,216 | $315,620 | $19,404 | Bull |
| First Officer | $161,509 | $145,521 | -$15,988 | Out |
| Flight Attendant | $130,696 | $134,631 | $3,935 | Bull |
| Flight Coordinator/Office Manager | $133,120 | $129,704 | -$3,417 | In |
| Line Service Tech | $86,957 | $87,528 | $571 | Bull |
| Maintenance Supervisor | $170,861 | $167,058 | -$3,803 | In |
| Maintenance Technician | $120,815 | $124,731 | $3,916 | Bull |
| Scheduler | $92,196 | $90,569 | -$1,628 | In |
| Senior Captain | $264,549 | $262,099 | -$2,450 | In |
| Senior Flight Attendant | $167,816 | $159,562 | -$8,255 | Out |
The AirComp Calculator’s methodology averages the aging trends for all positions over the past five years to dampen out dramatic upward and downward trends. Most of the time, it tends to be very accurate and in this case was on target or close for 12 of the 14 positions considered. But it can’t predict changes or corrections in the dataset and that’s what happened for the positions for which the estimates were off.
For First Officer, the weighted average for total cash compensation was $145,521, a figure that is actually less than the 2024 level of $150,168. Did First Officer compensation actually decrease since last year? Highly unlikely. While one explanation might be variance in survey organizations/participants year over year, the most likely explanation is that the incumbent dataset changed. Some first officers were probably promoted to captain inside their organization, or they left their companies to take a captain position at another company. New first officers were then hired and paid entry-level compensation. The resulting averages for the incumbent dataset would shift left as a result.
For the position of Senior Flight Attendant, total cash compensation did increase, but not at the rate predicted by the Calculator’s aging mechanism. This is the result of a correction in the growth rate. Over the last five years, Senior Flight Attendant compensation has been somewhat erratic, either growing at or near double-digit levels or correcting with growth levels that were flat or even negative. The results for this year show a definite correction with a 2.86% growth rate for the NBAA Survey and a -1.84% rate for the Gallagher Survey.
But as far as overall results are concerned, the Calculator demonstrated its overall accuracy. Its prediction for average comp growth from 2024 – 2025 was 5.93%. The actual growth rate was 6.74% – so it was off by less than 1% on the low side. That’s a bullseye for sure. Similarly, it predicted that the average total cash compensation level for 2025 across 14 positions would be $193,202. The actual level was $193,907, a $705 difference. That’s about as close as you’ll come to a “shack” in the compensation business.
Stay tuned for more observations on the data!
